Home prices are expected to grow at an average annual rate of just 1.1 percent through 2015, according to a survey released Wednesday by New Jersey-based MacroMarkets LLC.
The Home Price Expectations Survey, conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of MacroMarkets, is based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index over the next five years.
Pulsenomics surveyed 111 individuals, ranging from economists and real estate experts to investment and market strategists.
“Expectations for home price performance in 2011 has become somewhat less negative,” commented Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets cofounder and Yale University professor of economics. “Unfortunately, the average projection is somewhat more negative for each of the following four years.”
On average, respondents expect prices to decrease 2.53 percent this year and 0.13 percent in 2012. They expect increases the following three years starting in 2013 with a 1.77 percent increase, according to survey results.
“Markets and government institutions are visibly struggling to respond consistently to an unprecedented rash of crises and conflicts. These struggles diminish confidence, which compounds the underlying economic stresses and lowers expectations,” Shiller stated.
In addition to documenting home price projections, Pulsenomics asked respondents for their views on the government’s role in the housing market.
Seventy-three percent of respondents believe the government is “highly likely” or “likely” to implement new policies within the next 12 months.
Almost half – 49 percent – said further government intervention in the market is unnecessary
, and 57 percent said further action by the government is “undesirable.”
“This data suggests that regardless of when and how housing recovers, controversy will persist regarding the role of government in the market,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics.
Those who stated that more government intervention in the market is necessary or desired cited refinancing, modifications, rental programs, and home equity conversions as ways the government can improve the market.
MacroMarkets LLC is a financial technology company. Pulsenomics is an independent research and consulting firm.